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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 6 games
17%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Astral · 6 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 6 games
0%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%

Kalmychata

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 5 games
20%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 3 games
33%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 3 games
33%
Arc Warden
Arc Warden
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
smN · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
461 picks · 215 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 718 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
422 picks · 590 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 423 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
377 picks · 671 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
366 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 945 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 680 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:13
JustBetter 42%Kalmychata 58%
The model gave 58% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 20:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverFocus
50% · 120 games53% · 141 game
Dark SeerActor
Dark Seer
Axe
AxeSkyLark
43% · 70 games62% · 73 games
UrsaRetsu
Ursa
Rubick
RubickThuG
47% · 313 games40% · 149 games
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixAstral
45% · 189 games52% · 186 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
52% · 63 games60% · 206 games
Crystal Maidenantoha
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct18:41
JustBetter 43%Kalmychata 57%
The model gave 57% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaFocus
46% · 124 games48% · 176 games
MorphlingRetsu
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerThuG
50% · 174 games49% · 79 games
BeastmasterActor
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSkyLark
55% · 155 games63% · 107 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireSsaSpartan
48% · 242 games46% · 242 games
Phoenixantoha
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskAstral
47% · 159 games49% · 250 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 62%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2