?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 41 game
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
65%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 24 games
54%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 22 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 7 games
29%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Corrupted · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
460 picks · 215 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 719 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
423 picks · 591 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 424 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
375 picks · 673 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
367 picks · 168 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 946 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 680 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
1w Team 57%Night Pulse 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMunkushi~
47% · 39 games45% · 16 games
Shadow FiendV-Tune
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
45% · 80 games50% · 182 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
52% · 183 games49% · 58 games
UnderlordKami
Underlord
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
51% · 181 game48% · 172 games
HoodwinkJANTER
Hoodwink
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRESPECT
45% · 17 games60% · 72 games
Treant ProtectorHduo
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed7:32
1w Team 59%Night Pulse 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMunkushi~
55% · 86 games45% · 277 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCloud
59% · 116 games45% · 49 games
Chaos KnightV-Tune
Chaos Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
51% · 169 games42% · 242 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
48% · 227 games48% · 23 games
Witch DoctorJANTER
Witch Doctor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
55% · 161 game53% · 168 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct26:11
1w Team 60%Night Pulse 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
54% · 27 games51% · 174 games
WindrangerV-Tune
Windranger
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
52% · 114 games51% · 241 game
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
50% · 241 game49% · 101 game
SlardarKami
Slardar
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
48% · 229 games45% · 203 games
Dark WillowJANTER
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
49% · 155 games57% · 47 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3