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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 28 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 23 games
43%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 22 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 20 games
70%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 18 games
61%

9Pandas

Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 13 games
46%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 8 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 7 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Solo · 7 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 216 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 721 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 594 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 427 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
379 picks · 680 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
374 picks · 166 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
355 picks · 958 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 684 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total78% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:28
Virtus.pro 67%9Pandas 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 42:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
52% · 193 games50% · 214 games
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
Templar Assassin
Viper
ViperSquad1x
48% · 55 games49% · 167 games
Windrangerkiyotaka
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
46% · 304 games49% · 323 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickAntares
45% · 299 games54% · 157 games
Weaversayuw
Weaver
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFng
56% · 99 games53% · 89 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed10:28
Virtus.pro 68%9Pandas 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 30:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKiritych
58% · 141 game46% · 219 games
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
47% · 318 games42% · 186 games
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
56% · 83 games52% · 118 games
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
Dark Seer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
54% · 171 game57% · 97 games
Treant ProtectorSolo
Treant Protector
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAntares
44% · 114 games45% · 207 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 78%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2