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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 23 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 17 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 13 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
re1bl · 13 games
69%

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Astral · 6 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 6 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 5 games
20%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
470 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 729 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 603 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 425 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
384 picks · 693 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 165 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
361 picks · 974 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 694 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:9
HULIGANI 64%JustBetter 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 25:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorre1bl
40% · 158 games51% · 175 games
Templar AssassinThuG
Templar Assassin
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
46% · 229 games54% · 98 games
Troll WarlordFocus
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBb3px
48% · 122 games53% · 193 games
BrewmasterSkyLark
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyOneJey
50% · 235 games57% · 285 games
Shadow DemonAstral
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
52% · 242 games49% · 235 games
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct28:11
HULIGANI 67%JustBetter 33%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 17:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBb3px
46% · 98 games53% · 59 games
SlardarThuG
Slardar
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordv1olent-
58% · 92 games49% · 60 games
WindrangerFocus
Windranger
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritre1bl
52% · 47 games54% · 83 games
BrewmasterSkyLark
Brewmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
48% · 65 games49% · 74 games
HoodwinkAstral
Hoodwink
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPanto
50% · 15 games39% · 41 game
IoSsaSpartan
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 77%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2