The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Tinyoften banned
fy · 32 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 28 games
Lion
fy · 28 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
Luna
lou · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
fy · 20 games
Troll Warlordsignature
lou · 20 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 733 bans
Centaur Warrunner
435 picks · 602 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 426 bans
Batrider
384 picks · 698 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 165 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 977 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 698 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total54% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:11
Azure Ray 46%G2 Invictus Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 38:47.
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Azure Ray 46%G2 Invictus Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 37:01.
Game 3prediction correct14:33
Azure Ray 46%G2 Invictus Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 44:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 54%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3