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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 27 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 21 game
81%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 16 games
63%

Apex Genesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 6 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Bignum · 5 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Sammyboy · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
468 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 735 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 606 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 425 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
384 picks · 702 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 165 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 979 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 701 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total73% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:21
nouns 63%Apex Genesis 37%
The model gave 63% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
48% · 196 games51% · 252 games
TinySammyboy
Tiny
Ursa
UrsaYuma
55% · 83 games51% · 236 games
PangolierW1sh-
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGunnar
39% · 138 games50% · 101 game
WeaverSpeeed
Weaver
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
57% · 179 games55% · 54 games
Legion CommanderFayde
Legion Commander
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
52% · 211 games46% · 164 games
PhoenixBignum
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct30:5
nouns 61%Apex Genesis 39%
The model gave 61% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
54% · 68 games48% · 271 game
PangolierW1sh-
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGunnar
45% · 112 games54% · 145 games
LifestealerSammyboy
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyCopy
43% · 195 games63% · 52 games
Legion CommanderFayde
Legion Commander
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
50% · 130 games46% · 122 games
WeaverBignum
Weaver
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
53% · 150 games49% · 65 games
OracleSpeeed
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 73%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2