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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindswin 2:0
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 16 games
31%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Pablo · 15 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 14 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Adzantick · 12 games
58%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 12 games
42%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 38 games
66%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 33 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 31 game
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 25 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 22 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 225 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 741 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 615 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
429 picks · 422 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
387 picks · 710 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 989 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 703 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total88% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:25
Twisted Minds 26%MOUZ 74%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShad
49% · 102 games45% · 15 games
Shadow FiendSupream^
Shadow Fiend
Zeus
ZeusAdzantick
45% · 92 games56% · 59 games
LifestealerUlnit
Lifestealer
Dark Seer
Dark SeerStoneBank
59% · 97 games38% · 38 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernHandsken
40% · 23 games50% · 110 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPablo
57% · 6 games54% · 98 games
Disruptorbengan
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed42:40
Twisted Minds 27%MOUZ 73%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 57:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
53% · 150 games64% · 15 games
Shadow FiendSupream^
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
58% · 80 games46% · 45 games
Chaos KnightUlnit
Chaos Knight
Venomancer
VenomancerHandsken
53% · 45 games44% · 108 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPablo
44% · 168 games47% · 148 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAdzantick
50% · 4 games51% · 131 game
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 88%
Series resultTwisted Minds 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2