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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 23 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 17 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 13 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
re1bl · 13 games
69%

Kalmychata

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 3 games
33%
Arc Warden
Arc Warden
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
smN · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 225 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 743 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
436 picks · 614 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 421 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
387 picks · 712 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 989 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 703 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:24
HULIGANI 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magev1olent-
60% · 62 games46% · 83 games
MedusaRetsu
Medusa
Invoker
Invokerre1bl
52% · 103 games52% · 127 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBb3px
52% · 175 games47% · 27 games
Night StalkerActor
Night Stalker
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPanto
57% · 21 game40% · 164 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
45% · 113 games56% · 73 games
Treant Protectorantoha
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct30:9
HULIGANI 52%Kalmychata 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 21:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
51% · 143 games58% · 72 games
UrsaRetsu
Ursa
Phoenix
Phoenixre1bl
40% · 187 games44% · 142 games
Templar AssassinNattyNarwhal
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsBb3px
56% · 118 games54% · 132 games
BrewmasterActor
Brewmaster
Io
IoPanto
54% · 49 games54% · 95 games
Chenantoha
Chen
Pudge
PudgeOneJey
46% · 44 games45% · 100 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 61%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2