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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:1
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azure Rayloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
67%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ponlo · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
75%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
7e · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 9 games
67%
Luna
Luna
poyoyo · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 9 games
67%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 32 games
59%
Lion
Lion
fy · 28 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 26 games
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Luna
Luna
lou · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 20 games
45%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
lou · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
475 picks · 225 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 746 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
436 picks · 615 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 420 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
390 picks · 715 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 165 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 995 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 707 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total77% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:18
Team Zero 33%Azure Ray 67%
The model gave 67% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 45:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertapoyoyo
45% · 84 games57% · 163 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit7e
41% · 66 games53% · 186 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierBEYOND
51% · 184 games54% · 187 games
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickPonlo
45% · 183 games45% · 45 games
Shadow Shamanfy
Shadow Shaman
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenzzq
49% · 118 games57% · 54 games
Winter Wyvern天命
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct12:27
Team Zero 35%Azure Ray 65%
The model gave 65% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzpoyoyo
50% · 75 games55% · 170 games
Faceless Voidlou
Faceless Void
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit7e
47% · 99 games51% · 96 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBEYOND
53% · 308 games49% · 208 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaPonlo
53% · 182 games45% · 147 games
Phoenixfy
Phoenix
Clockwerk
Clockwerkzzq
54% · 195 games43% · 238 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed27:27
Team Zero 33%Azure Ray 67%
The model gave 67% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 45:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
48% · 37 games47% · 150 games
Terrorbladelou
Terrorblade
Razor
Razor7e
42% · 192 games54% · 137 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierBEYOND
47% · 279 games57% · 80 games
EnigmaFaith_bian
Enigma
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPonlo
49% · 144 games52% · 240 games
Centaur Warrunnerfy
Centaur Warrunner
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorzzq
52% · 91 game54% · 136 games
Pugna天命
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 77%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3