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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TEAM TURTLEwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 15 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 13 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 13 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
58%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 12 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 11 games
55%

TEAM TURTLE

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Yang · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 2 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Somnus · 2 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Somnus · 2 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Chalice · 2 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Chalice · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Fantasy · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 226 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 747 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 617 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 420 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 719 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
383 picks · 165 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1001 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 712 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% TEAM TURTLE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:24
LGD Gaming 57%TEAM TURTLE 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
47% · 156 games49% · 11 games
Shadow FiendSomnus
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
43% · 120 games52% · 107 games
RazorChalice
Razor
Pangolier
PangolierEcho
50% · 246 games56% · 231 game
Centaur WarrunnerYang
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
42% · 60 games50% · 140 games
Dark WillowpLAnet
Dark Willow
Oracle
Oracley`
55% · 48 games53% · 141 game
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed7:28
LGD Gaming 59%TEAM TURTLE 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
55% · 186 games44% · 157 games
Dragon KnightChalice
Dragon Knight
Leshrac
LeshracEcho
55% · 146 games46% · 136 games
RazorYang
Razor
Pangolier
Pangolierniu
50% · 263 games53% · 155 games
Storm SpiritSomnus
Storm Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
47% · 52 games44% · 161 game
PhoenixFantasy
Phoenix
Marci
Marciy`
59% · 66 games49% · 104 games
TuskpLAnet
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 66%
Series resultTEAM TURTLE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2