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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
nounsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 15 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%

nouns

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 23 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 21 game
81%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Gunnar · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 225 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 748 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 619 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
432 picks · 420 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 719 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 165 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
361 picks · 1001 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 716 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total65% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:6
Shopify Rebellion 57%nouns 43%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeArteezy
62% · 50 games53% · 122 games
LifestealerYuma
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
57% · 133 games46% · 120 games
WindrangerCopy
Windranger
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
52% · 167 games39% · 106 games
Dark SeerGunnar
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixSkem
47% · 190 games50% · 113 games
ClockwerkFly
Clockwerk
43% · 79 games
MuertaLelis
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed13:20
Shopify Rebellion 58%nouns 42%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciArteezy
59% · 104 games54% · 142 games
TinyYuma
Tiny
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
49% · 337 games51% · 141 game
Primal BeastCopy
Primal Beast
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
45% · 129 games51% · 186 games
PangolierGunnar
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaSkem
51% · 185 games39% · 118 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
52% · 168 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct0:0
Shopify Rebellion 59%nouns 41%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 19074:15:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaArteezy
52% · 66 games48% · 194 games
Primal BeastGunnar
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
48% · 366 games46% · 163 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMinD_ContRoL
48% · 241 game50% · 167 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSkem
50% · 45 games55% · 121 game
Dark WillowLelis
Dark Willow
60% · 73 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 65%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3