The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
THThe Hutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
The Hut
Nyx Assassin
bgod · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
bgod · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
477 picks · 225 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 749 bans
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 417 bans
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 627 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 725 bans
Rubick
382 picks · 165 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1009 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 719 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% The Hut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:8
Apex Genesis 61%The Hut 39%
The model gave 61% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSammyboy
Pudgebgod
PangolierW1sh-
Night StalkerFayde
WeaverSpeeed
HoodwinkBignum
Game 2prediction correct33:24
Apex Genesis 62%The Hut 38%
The model gave 62% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherFayde
Hoodwinkbgod
Keeper of the LightW1sh-
EnchantressSpeeed
Dragon KnightSammyboy
Dark WillowBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 72%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2