The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TEAM TURTLEwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TEAM TURTLE
Dark Seeroften banned
Yang · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Somnus · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Fantasy · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
pLAnet · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Chalice · 1 game
Clockwerk
pLAnet · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 1 game
Spiky Gaming
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 4 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Hara · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 229 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 755 bans
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 416 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 633 bans
Batrider
400 picks · 736 bans
Rubick
382 picks · 168 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1017 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 723 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% TEAM TURTLE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% TEAM TURTLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:6
TEAM TURTLE 71%Spiky Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverChalice
Templar AssassinManic
HuskarSomnus
Ember SpiritXwy
Centaur WarrunnerYang
MuertaHara
Ogre MagiFantasy
Dark WillowpLAnet
Game 2prediction correct19:5
TEAM TURTLE 68%Spiky Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 18:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSomnus
LifestealerManic
Troll WarlordChalice
Dragon KnightXwy
Vengeful SpiritYang
Dark WillowHara
TinypLAnet
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTEAM TURTLE · 84%
Series resultTEAM TURTLE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2