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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ToLightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
RedPanda · 7 games
86%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 7 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
29%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
71%

ToLight

Chen
Chenoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
GodKing · 1 game
100%
Mirana
Mirana
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 226 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 749 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 418 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 631 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 742 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
383 picks · 166 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
355 picks · 1023 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 727 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% KEV
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% KEV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
KEV 58%ToLight 42%
The model gave 58% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 23:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerUlu
62% · 25 games42% · 72 games
MedusaGodKing
Medusa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
29% · 3 games
Night Stalker
Night Stalker生死
78% · 5 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkUndyne_
63% · 23 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowRedPanda
50% · 16 games
Game 2prediction correct20:10
KEV 58%ToLight 42%
The model gave 58% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 16:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windranger生死
50% · 12 games51% · 92 games
MuertaGodKing
Muerta
Wraith King
Wraith KingUlu
43% · 24 games
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerButterflyEffect
43% · 3 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowRedPanda
58% · 46 games
Pudge
PudgeUndyne_
45% · 7 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKEV · 65%
Series resultKEV 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2