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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Warriorloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TEAM TURTLEwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Old Warrior

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Setsu · 3 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
flyfly · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
flyfly · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
QYQX · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
QYQX · 1 game
100%

TEAM TURTLE

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Yang · 2 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Somnus · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pLAnet · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
pLAnet · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Yang · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 225 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 748 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 628 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
432 picks · 418 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 742 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 1021 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 727 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Old Warrior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% TEAM TURTLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
Old Warrior 45%TEAM TURTLE 55%
The model gave 55% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaflyfly
51% · 27 games53% · 45 games
Troll WarlordChalice
Troll Warlord
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSetsu
55% · 10 games40% · 6 games
Outworld DestroyerSomnus
Outworld Destroyer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterELeVeN
54% · 69 games50% · 120 games
Dark SeerYang
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickKaka
50% · 134 games45% · 84 games
TuskpLAnet
Tusk
Oracle
OracleQYQX
52% · 23 games33% · 8 games
JakiroFantasy
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct10:28
Old Warrior 43%TEAM TURTLE 57%
The model gave 57% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 22:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSetsu
46% · 85 games45% · 40 games
Chaos KnightChalice
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawELeVeN
50% · 127 games50% · 244 games
Dragon KnightSomnus
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterflyfly
52% · 167 games53% · 177 games
RazorYang
Razor
Lion
LionKaka
53% · 127 games45% · 98 games
MuertapLAnet
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQYQX
53% · 114 games49% · 61 game
Ancient ApparitionFantasy
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTEAM TURTLE · 63%
Series resultTEAM TURTLE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2