?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4 amigosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 21 game
81%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 15 games
73%

4 amigos

Mirana
Mirana
albinozebra · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Double King · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
RCY · 3 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 746 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 627 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
429 picks · 418 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 740 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
380 picks · 165 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 1021 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 726 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
nouns 72%4 amigos 28%
The model gave 72% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoYuma
36% · 20 games52% · 183 games
GyrocopterDouble King
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
49% · 119 games45% · 85 games
Void SpiritRCY
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGunnar
56% · 67 games43% · 34 games
Night Stalkermonkeys-forever
Night Stalker
Mirana
MiranaFly
57% · 100 games55% · 183 games
Clockwerkalbinozebra
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickLelis
45% · 179 games
Game 2prediction missed12:23
nouns 73%4 amigos 27%
The model gave 73% on nouns — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawCopy
51% · 174 games50% · 215 games
GyrocopterDouble King
Gyrocopter
Meepo
MeepoGunnar
45% · 30 games51% · 313 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerYuma
52% · 108 games45% · 115 games
Tidehuntermonkeys-forever
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickLelis
50% · 256 games44% · 28 games
Warlockalbinozebra
Warlock
Mirana
MiranaFly
59% · 103 games
Game 3prediction correct52:7
nouns 72%4 amigos 28%
The model gave 72% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYuma
46% · 77 games45% · 133 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Pudge
PudgeCopy
52% · 27 games54% · 125 games
Brewmastermonkeys-forever
Brewmaster
Mars
MarsGunnar
48% · 131 game50% · 151 game
GyrocopterDouble King
Gyrocopter
Weaver
WeaverLelis
57% · 98 games38% · 17 games
Warlockalbinozebra
Warlock
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
52% · 93 games
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 85%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3