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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 1:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Lavaloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 18 games
72%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 16 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
43%
Techies
Techiessignature
Panda · 13 games
62%

Lava

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Genek · 7 games
14%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
20%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Gardick · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 3 games
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
DaaD- · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 747 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 630 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 416 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 744 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
380 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1029 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 730 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 39%
Hero pool strength62% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total80% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:10
BOOM Esports 80%Lava 20%
The model gave 80% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 80%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1