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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spiky Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Lion
Lionsignature
Ponlo · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
64%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
7e · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 9 games
67%
Luna
Luna
poyoyo · 9 games
44%
Razor
Razoroften banned
7e · 9 games
44%

Spiky Gaming

Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 2 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hara · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Xwy · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xwy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 745 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
428 picks · 628 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 414 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 743 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1029 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 730 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Team Zero 70%Spiky Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 21:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
57% · 46 games47% · 175 games
MorphlingManic
Morphling
Tiny
Tiny7e
47% · 191 game47% · 155 games
Storm SpiritXwy
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
52% · 180 games56% · 204 games
Shadow DemonHara
Shadow Demon
Weaver
WeaverPonlo
53% · 82 games
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernzzq
40% · 35 games
Game 2prediction missed14:35
Team Zero 69%Spiky Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertapoyoyo
42% · 60 games51% · 192 games
DoomManic
Doom
Timbersaw
Timbersaw7e
49% · 119 games42% · 24 games
Outworld DestroyerXwy
Outworld Destroyer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBEYOND
55% · 67 games50% · 166 games
Dark WillowHara
Dark Willow
Snapfire
SnapfirePonlo
41% · 40 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenzzq
63% · 96 games
Game 3prediction correct37:27
Team Zero 69%Spiky Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 43:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
42% · 53 games52% · 169 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit7e
42% · 64 games58% · 115 games
WeaverManic
Weaver
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBEYOND
49% · 29 games51% · 165 games
Dark WillowHara
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickPonlo
45% · 188 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkzzq
54% · 115 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 84%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3