The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Lavawin 1:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MMAMUTEROSloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Grimstroke
Genek · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
Gardick · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Gyrocopter
DaaD- · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
MAMUTEROS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 745 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 629 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 414 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 744 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1030 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 730 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% MAMUTEROS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Lava 51%MAMUTEROS 49%
The model gave 51% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 51%
Series resultLava 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1