The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Trustloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LLAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Trust
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Clockwerk
出省 · 1 game
Dark Willowoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
Muerta
冷鸟 · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
冷鸟 · 1 game
Venomancer
出省 · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Winter Wyvern
出省 · 1 game
LA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 741 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 625 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 746 bans
Rubick
378 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1025 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 733 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% LA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% LA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:6
Team Trust 36%LA 64%
The model gave 64% on LA — the game was taken by LA in 18:32.
Game 2prediction correct26:2
Team Trust 36%LA 64%
The model gave 64% on LA — the game was taken by LA in 14:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteLA · 64%
Series resultLA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2