The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pacific esportsloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NoPing VPNwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pacific esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
NoPing VPN
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 749 bans
Centaur Warrunner
430 picks · 640 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 759 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
356 picks · 1043 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 742 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:24
Pacific esports 43%NoPing VPN 57%
The model gave 57% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 42:23.
Game 2prediction correct
Pacific esports 43%NoPing VPN 57%
The model gave 57% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 57%
Series resultNoPing VPN 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2