The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HHopebringersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Hopebringers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 743 bans
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 641 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 408 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
385 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
357 picks · 1046 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
Team Bald Reborn 77%Hopebringers 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 25:04.
Game 2prediction correct6:26
Team Bald Reborn 77%Hopebringers 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 14:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 77%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2