The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionHHopebringerswin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UGunranked gamersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hopebringers
No games played over 6 months.
unranked gamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 741 bans
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 641 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 408 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
385 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
357 picks · 1045 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Hopebringers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% unranked gamers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:17
Hopebringers 49%unranked gamers 51%
The model gave 51% on unranked gamers — the game was taken by Hopebringers in 28:46.
Game 2prediction missed15:40
Hopebringers 49%unranked gamers 51%
The model gave 51% on unranked gamers — the game was taken by Hopebringers in 32:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteunranked gamers · 51%
Series resultHopebringers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2