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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mary_y · 12 games
17%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
55%
Bane
Bane
Mary_y · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
40%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
40%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
20%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 21 game
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 734 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 633 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 409 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 756 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1039 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 745 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:29
B8 Esports 42%SIBE Team 58%
The model gave 58% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 49:35.
Game 2prediction correct37:21
B8 Esports 42%SIBE Team 58%
The model gave 58% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 36:19.
Game 3prediction correct30:32
B8 Esports 42%SIBE Team 58%
The model gave 58% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 40:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 58%
Series resultSIBE Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3