The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionT5Tony's 5 Friendswin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ppiggzloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tony's 5 Friends
No games played over 6 months.
piggz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 734 bans
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 633 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 409 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 756 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1039 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Tony's 5 Friends
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% piggz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:21
Tony's 5 Friends 45%piggz 55%
The model gave 55% on piggz — the game was taken by Tony's 5 Friends in 38:14.
Game 2prediction missed13:44
Tony's 5 Friends 45%piggz 55%
The model gave 55% on piggz — the game was taken by Tony's 5 Friends in 30:54.
Model check result
Model favoritepiggz · 55%
Series resultTony's 5 Friends 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2