The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportswin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SESabong esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 7 games
Dark Willow
ace12 · 6 games
Marsoften banned
eleven · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Techies
ace12 · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
Sabong esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 734 bans
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 631 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 406 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 756 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1037 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:38
IHC Esports 59%Sabong esports 41%
The model gave 59% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Sabong esports in 43:32.
Game 2prediction correct21:43
IHC Esports 59%Sabong esports 41%
The model gave 59% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 38:36.
Game 3prediction correct36:29
IHC Esports 59%Sabong esports 41%
The model gave 59% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 43:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 59%
Series resultIHC Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3