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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Me Parbloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IHC Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Me Parb

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
KNP · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
boombell · 1 game
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
0%

IHC Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ace12 · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
eleven · 4 games
25%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ace12 · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 735 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 632 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 405 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
407 picks · 758 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total84% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Me Parb 16%IHC Esports 84%
The model gave 84% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Me Parb 16%IHC Esports 84%
The model gave 84% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 84%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2