The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TEAM TURTLEwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 9 games
Tidehunter
Irving · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
TK · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 8 games
Slardarsignature
Irving · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Linasignature
Ulu · 7 games
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
TEAM TURTLE
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 1 game
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Yang · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Somnus · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Chalice · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Somnus · 1 game
Venomancer
Fantasy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 735 bans
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 632 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% TEAM TURTLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
Team Bright 39%TEAM TURTLE 61%
The model gave 61% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 24:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinukiyo
Shadow FiendSomnus
ClockwerkTK
TimbersawChalice
46% · 55 games
Dark SeerYang
50% · 86 games
BatriderpLAnet
57% · 81 game
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Game 2prediction correct17:33
Team Bright 36%TEAM TURTLE 64%
The model gave 64% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 30:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinyukiyo
Storm SpiritSomnus
Dark WillowTK
Dark SeerYang
54% · 82 games
WeaverChalice
59% · 90 games
ClockwerkpLAnet
48% · 85 games
PugnaFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTEAM TURTLE · 71%
Series resultTEAM TURTLE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2