The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSRShadow Reapersloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TMTeam Musicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shadow Reapers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Music
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 735 bans
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 632 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Shadow Reapers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Shadow Reapers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Shadow Reapers 55%Team Music 45%
The model gave 55% on Shadow Reapers — the game was taken by Team Music.
Game 2prediction missed
Shadow Reapers 55%Team Music 45%
The model gave 55% on Shadow Reapers — the game was taken by Team Music.
Model check result
Model favoriteShadow Reapers · 55%
Series resultTeam Music 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2