The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OOutcastloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 19 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 16 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 14 games
Luna
Palos · 14 games
Outcast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 735 bans
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 632 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TNC Predator 87%Outcast 13%
The model gave 87% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator.
Game 2prediction correct
TNC Predator 87%Outcast 13%
The model gave 87% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 87%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2