The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OWOld Warriorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Tidehunter
Irving · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
TK · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 8 games
Slardarsignature
Irving · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Linasignature
Ulu · 7 games
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
Old Warrior
Chaos Knightoften banned
flyfly · 1 game
Clockwerk
QYQX · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
QYQX · 1 game
Earthshaker
Kaka · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Setsu · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
Rubick
Kaka · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Setsu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 735 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 631 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1041 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Old Warrior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Old Warrior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed57:45
Team Bright 49%Old Warrior 51%
The model gave 51% on Old Warrior — the game was taken by Team Bright in 54:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursaukiyo
Void SpiritSetsu
Crystal MaidenTK
Wraith Kingflyfly
53% · 11 games
Legion CommanderELeVeN
56% · 5 games
LichQYQX
54% · 36 games
GrimstrokeKaka
Game 2prediction correct8:23
Team Bright 45%Old Warrior 55%
The model gave 55% on Old Warrior — the game was taken by Old Warrior in 15:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordukiyo
Weaverflyfly
SnapfireTK
Primal BeastELeVeN
52% · 39 games
SlardarSetsu
little data
Shadow ShamanKaka
45% · 104 games
PhoenixQYQX
Game 3prediction correct
Team Bright 43%Old Warrior 57%
The model gave 57% on Old Warrior — the game was taken by Old Warrior.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld Warrior · 57%
Series resultOld Warrior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3