NGNB vs KEV — prediction I2ОК · Dota 2

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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

NNGNBloss 0:2

series probability

28%72%

probability at match start · final 0:2

KEVwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NGNB

No games played over 6 months.

KEV

Brewmasteroften banned

ELeVeN · 8 games

50%

Weaversignature

flyfly · 8 games

63%

Disruptorsignature

Undyne_ · 7 games

100%

Leshracoften banned

ButterflyEffect · 7 games

29%

Omniknightsignature

ELeVeN · 7 games

71%

Pudgeoften banned

Undyne_ · 7 games

43%

Dragon Knightoften banned

ButterflyEffect · 6 games

50%

Kunkkaoften banned

ButterflyEffect · 6 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Crystal Maiden

486 picks · 221 bans

52%

Tiny

454 picks · 732 bans

53%

Centaur Warrunner

432 picks · 628 bans

54%

Gyrocopter

426 picks · 405 bans

50%

Batrider

405 picks · 755 bans

50%

Rubick

386 picks · 164 bans

51%

Dragon Knight

358 picks · 1035 bans

53%

Pangolier

357 picks · 745 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%

Hero pool strength53% KEV

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total72% KEV

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct10:32

NGNB 39%KEV 61%

The model gave 61% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 22:44.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo