The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionIIIePeKyPloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FFRIENDSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IIePeKyP
No games played over 6 months.
FRIENDS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 733 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 630 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 406 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 760 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1040 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% IIePeKyP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% IIePeKyP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
IIePeKyP 52%FRIENDS 48%
The model gave 52% on IIePeKyP — the game was taken by FRIENDS.
Game 2prediction correct
IIePeKyP 52%FRIENDS 48%
The model gave 52% on IIePeKyP — the game was taken by IIePeKyP.
Game 3prediction missed
IIePeKyP 52%FRIENDS 48%
The model gave 52% on IIePeKyP — the game was taken by FRIENDS.
Model check result
Model favoriteIIePeKyP · 52%
Series resultFRIENDS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3