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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 1:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team NextUploss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mary_y · 12 games
17%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
55%
Bane
Bane
Mary_y · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
40%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
40%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
20%

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 13 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
27%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 9 games
44%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 9 games
22%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 7 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 728 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 628 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
405 picks · 757 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 162 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1037 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 32%
Hero pool strength50% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team NextUp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:11
B8 Esports 50%Team NextUp 50%
The model gave 50% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 31:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam NextUp · 50%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1