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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Apex Genesisloss 0:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GRIN esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Speeed · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
50%

GRIN esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 225 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 728 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 629 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 405 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 760 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 162 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1040 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 748 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Apex Genesis 51%GRIN esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 51%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1