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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kimi.no.na.waloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%

Kimi.no.na.wa

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 723 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 625 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 757 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 161 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1036 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 747 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:22
GRIN esports 81%Kimi.no.na.wa 19%
The model gave 81% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 33:18.
Game 2prediction correct28:36
GRIN esports 81%Kimi.no.na.wa 19%
The model gave 81% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 46:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 81%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2