BLAST Slam IX. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Two Moveloss 0:1series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 0:1
DBDawn Bullswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Two Move
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 5 games
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
Snapfireoften banned
queezy · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
Techies
Htrd · 4 games
Dawn Bulls
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
473 picks · 308 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 495 bans
Bane
306 picks · 426 bans
Clockwerk
306 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
293 picks · 109 bans
Shadow Fiend
290 picks · 617 bans
Dark Willow
286 picks · 119 bans
Centaur Warrunner
273 picks · 290 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Two Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Two Move 87%Dawn Bulls 13%
The model gave 87% on Two Move — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls.
Model check result
Model favoriteTwo Move · 87%
Series resultDawn Bulls 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1