EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NHNo Hoodwinkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwink
dEsire · 38 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 30 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 28 games
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 22 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 20 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
Largooften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
No Hoodwink
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
re1bl · 3 games
Mirana
Katari_ · 3 games
Broodmother
rubikon155 · 2 games
Dark Willow
Katari_ · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
Lion
Katari_ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
503 picks · 362 bans
Clockwerk
365 picks · 654 bans
Rubick
352 picks · 197 bans
Bane
332 picks · 374 bans
Tiny
320 picks · 349 bans
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 451 bans
Windranger
310 picks · 232 bans
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Zero Tenacity 66%No Hoodwink 34%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosDifference
Lone Druidrubikon155
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Ember Spiritre1bl
Windrangernesfeer
Dawnbreakermangekyou
Treant Protectormrls
MiranaKatari_
TechiesdEsire
Witch Doctorasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct42:17
Zero Tenacity 66%No Hoodwink 34%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Lone Druidrubikon155
Tinynesfeer
Lycanmangekyou
Ember SpiritDifference
Earthshakerre1bl
Grimstrokemrls
Baneasdekor_r
TuskdEsire
RubickKatari_
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 80%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2