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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Matreshka Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Bane
Bane
smN · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 2 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
rincyq · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hina · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
rincyq · 1 game
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
rincyq · 1 game
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
smN · 1 game
0%

Matreshka Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 224 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 724 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 628 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 761 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 161 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1042 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Kalmychata 43%Matreshka Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Game 2prediction correct
Kalmychata 43%Matreshka Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Game 3prediction missed
Kalmychata 43%Matreshka Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 57%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3