Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 3:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 22 games
Gyrocopter
OmaR · 18 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 16 games
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 13 games
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 13 games
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 12 games
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 719 bans
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 626 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 761 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total75% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
PSG Quest 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTA2000
LunaMiracle-
PuckNo!ob
ZeusSumaiL
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Dark SeerFbz
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow DemonKuroKy
DisruptorDukalis
TuskGH
Game 2prediction correct35:32
PSG Quest 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 51:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNo!ob
RazorSumaiL
WindrangerTA2000
SlardarFbz
DoomMalik
Vengeful SpiritMiracle-
ClockwerkDukalis
Dark WillowGH
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Crystal MaidenKuroKy
Game 3prediction missed16:39
PSG Quest 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerMalik
RazorSumaiL
JuggernautTA2000
AxeFbz
SlardarNo!ob
PudgeMiracle-
VenomancerDukalis
PhoenixGH
ClockwerkOmaR
DisruptorKuroKy
Game 4prediction correct20:25
PSG Quest 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 56:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautTA2000
SvenMiracle-
Storm SpiritNo!ob
TimbersawSumaiL
SlardarMalik
Dark SeerFbz
PugnaDukalis
Dark WillowGH
Shadow ShamanOmaR
DisruptorKuroKy
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 75%
Series resultPSG Quest 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4