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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 7 games
29%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Corrupted · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
JANTER · 5 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 14 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 12 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 11 games
73%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 715 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 624 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 756 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 161 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1045 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:22
Night Pulse 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 57:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordV-Tune
50% · 58 games52% · 95 games
Naga SirenMiracle-
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
45% · 195 games47% · 83 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Enigma
EnigmaKami
49% · 130 games53% · 114 games
Dark SeerFbz
Dark Seer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJANTER
48% · 150 games51% · 170 games
Shadow DemonGH
Shadow Demon
Oracle
OracleHduo
57% · 67 games49% · 138 games
ClockwerkKuroKy
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed37:21
Night Pulse 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
49% · 164 games50% · 84 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
49% · 299 games53% · 200 games
TinyMiracle-
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerKami
46% · 151 game56% · 179 games
TimbersawFbz
Timbersaw
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernHduo
40% · 53 games51% · 225 games
BatriderKuroKy
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJANTER
50% · 202 games55% · 181 game
Shadow DemonGH
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed15:36
Night Pulse 51%Nigma Galaxy 49%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautV-Tune
41% · 37 games50% · 138 games
SvenMiracle-
Sven
Puck
PuckWorick
61% · 144 games48% · 164 games
TimbersawSumaiL
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordKami
50% · 41 game50% · 133 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJANTER
52% · 130 games47% · 31 game
DazzleKuroKy
Dazzle
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
51% · 151 game38% · 37 games
Shadow ShamanGH
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 51%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3