The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KOBOLDSloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KOBOLDS
No games played over 6 months.
Yangon Galacticos
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 715 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 624 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 756 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1045 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% KOBOLDS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:35
KOBOLDS 28%Yangon Galacticos 72%
The model gave 72% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 35:34.
Game 2prediction correct47:18
KOBOLDS 28%Yangon Galacticos 72%
The model gave 72% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 35:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 72%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2