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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KEVloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 31 game
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 28 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 27 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 22 games
68%
Luna
Luna
lou · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 20 games
45%

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 7 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
71%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 7 games
43%
Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 7 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 713 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 623 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 755 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 161 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
356 picks · 1044 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total91% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
Azure Ray 77%KEV 23%
The model gave 77% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
48% · 183 games58% · 87 games
LeshracButterflyEffect
Leshrac
Ursa
Ursalou
56% · 46 games57% · 28 games
Chaos KnightUlu
Chaos Knight
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerOri
61% · 22 games49% · 54 games
Axe生死
Axe
Chen
Chen天命
49% · 60 games38% · 211 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Snapfire
Snapfirefy
49% · 127 games51% · 58 games
IoUndyne_
Io
Game 2prediction missed12:24
Azure Ray 77%KEV 23%
The model gave 77% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by KEV in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kinglou
49% · 50 games51% · 53 games
Timbersaw生死
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingOri
43% · 3 games56% · 33 games
WindrangerUlu
Windranger
Viper
ViperFaith_bian
52% · 55 games38% · 49 games
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
Dragon Knight
Earthshaker
Earthshakerfy
66% · 66 games52% · 66 games
Dark WillowRedPanda
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern天命
34% · 41 game49% · 14 games
VenomancerUndyne_
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct21:31
Azure Ray 76%KEV 24%
The model gave 76% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 1:00:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracOri
56% · 84 games44% · 196 games
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
Dragon Knight
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
48% · 105 games54% · 96 games
WeaverUlu
Weaver
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFaith_bian
54% · 84 games43% · 41 game
Axe生死
Axe
Tiny
Tinyfy
50% · 188 games51% · 30 games
Winter WyvernUndyne_
Winter Wyvern
Venomancer
Venomancer天命
52% · 38 games48% · 136 games
Dark WillowRedPanda
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 91%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3