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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 7 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
71%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
50%

Spiky Gaming

Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 2 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hara · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hara · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Xwy · 1 game
0%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Hara · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Hara · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 709 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 619 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
409 picks · 755 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 161 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 1043 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% KEV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
KEV 56%Spiky Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 29:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciUlu
56% · 42 games41% · 48 games
Troll WarlordManic
Troll Warlord
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernButterflyEffect
59% · 22 games47% · 117 games
Primal BeastXwy
Primal Beast
Legion Commander
Legion Commander生死
52% · 49 games50% · 122 games
BatriderHara
Batrider
Io
IoUndyne_
51% · 52 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowRedPanda
52% · 122 games
Game 2prediction correct29:33
KEV 56%Spiky Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 1:00:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaUlu
44% · 22 games49% · 64 games
Troll WarlordManic
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
53% · 115 games48% · 140 games
RazorXwy
Razor
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker生死
58% · 30 games47% · 165 games
Shadow DemonHara
Shadow Demon
Weaver
WeaverRedPanda
55% · 68 games
Enchantress
EnchantressUndyne_
50% · 134 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKEV · 59%
Series resultKEV 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2