Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Gyrocopter
KJ · 35 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 26 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 16 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 709 bans
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 618 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
409 picks · 755 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1043 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Heroic 67%beastcoast 33%
The model gave 67% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 35:13.
Game 2prediction correct27:31
Heroic 67%beastcoast 33%
The model gave 67% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 37:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 67%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2