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BLAST Slam IX. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:1
PlayTimewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 27 games
59%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rain · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 14 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
45%

PlayTime

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 26 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 18 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wits · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axesignature
Frank · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
473 picks · 308 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 495 bans
57%
Bane
Bane
306 picks · 426 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
306 picks · 367 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
293 picks · 109 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
290 picks · 617 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
286 picks · 119 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
273 picks · 290 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:48
Yellow Submarine 38%PlayTime 62%
The model gave 62% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 1:28:39.
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 62%
Series resultPlayTime 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1