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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Leviatanwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cuyes Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Leviatan

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
kpii · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 4 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Xepher · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 3 games
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Sammyboy · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 707 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
436 picks · 616 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 396 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
409 picks · 755 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 161 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1043 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Leviatan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Leviatan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:3
Cuyes Esports 50%Leviatan 50%
The model gave 50% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 26:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinParker
53% · 82 games50% · 92 games
LeshracStojkov
Leshrac
Zeus
ZeusPiPi
49% · 50 games47% · 81 game
Dark Seerkpii
Dark Seer
Slardar
SlardarILICH-
64% · 47 games45% · 52 games
Chaos KnightMnz
Chaos Knight
Tusk
TuskMatthew
46% · 36 games43% · 66 games
BaneXepher
Bane
Disruptor
DisruptorMjz
54% · 76 games
Game 2prediction correct8:28
Cuyes Esports 48%Leviatan 52%
The model gave 52% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 24:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaPiPi
44% · 63 games63% · 69 games
Troll WarlordMnz
Troll Warlord
Slardar
SlardarILICH-
52% · 88 games57% · 93 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Razor
RazorParker
45% · 102 games50% · 148 games
Primal Beastkpii
Primal Beast
Disruptor
DisruptorMjz
49% · 95 games47% · 140 games
Dark WillowXepher
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskMatthew
41% · 102 games
Game 3prediction correct10:30
Cuyes Esports 49%Leviatan 51%
The model gave 51% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracPiPi
48% · 41 game51% · 58 games
Troll WarlordMnz
Troll Warlord
Windranger
WindrangerParker
49% · 75 games50% · 156 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Razor
RazorILICH-
45% · 50 games54% · 34 games
Dazzlekpii
Dazzle
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMjz
54% · 117 games49% · 130 games
Spirit BreakerXepher
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMatthew
49% · 95 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLeviatan · 51%
Series resultLeviatan 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3