BLAST Slam IX. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Kalmychatawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 23 games
Tusk
Fernans · 14 games
Banesignature
Se · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 13 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 13 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 12 games
Doomsignature
rubikon155 · 11 games
Winter Wyvern
Se · 10 games
Kalmychata
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
473 picks · 308 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 495 bans
Bane
306 picks · 426 bans
Clockwerk
306 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
293 picks · 109 bans
Shadow Fiend
290 picks · 617 bans
Dark Willow
286 picks · 119 bans
Centaur Warrunner
273 picks · 290 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Inner Circle
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Inner Circle 33%Kalmychata 67%
The model gave 67% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 67%
Series resultKalmychata 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1