Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batridersignature
Ekki · 19 games
Rubick
Thiolicor · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Clockwerk
Puppey · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Lifestealersignature
Crystallis · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 707 bans
Centaur Warrunner
435 picks · 617 bans
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 756 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1044 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total80% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:30
Team Secret 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:13:01.
Game 2prediction correct18:36
Team Secret 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 50:37.
Game 3prediction correct20:26
Team Secret 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 59:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 80%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3