Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cuyes Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Gyrocopter
KJ · 35 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 26 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 16 games
Cuyes Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 704 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 616 bans
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 393 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 753 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1043 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Heroic 73%Cuyes Esports 27%
The model gave 73% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Game 2prediction correct
Heroic 73%Cuyes Esports 27%
The model gave 73% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 73%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2